How Iran Became a Palace Without Walls

Among those recently killed in Israeli attacks on Iran were several nuclear scientists, as well as senior commanders of Iran’s military and Revolutionary Guard. The nature of these attacks and the identities of the victims send a stark message: Iran’s intelligence apparatus is in shambles.

In the Iranian context, the two military figures killed could be considered the third most important individuals in the country, right after the Supreme Leader and the President. They were supposed to have the highest level of protection, and yet both were killed—on Iranian soil. This wasn’t even a surprise strike; the entire world knew for days that an attack on Iran was imminent. Yet, Iran failed both to conceal their locations from Mossad and to protect them from the assault.

A few months ago, we witnessed another massive intelligence failure. While attending the funeral of the Iranian President, Ismail Haniyeh, head of the Palestinian resistance group Hamas, was assassinated. Everyone knew that since October 7, Haniyeh topped Israel’s hit list. Iran had reportedly given him the highest possible security. Yet, he was murdered in his own bedroom in a high-security compound. Mossad agents allegedly planted a bomb under his bed. This means Mossad not only knew which room he was in, but also had direct operational access to it.

Iran’s most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, has suffered similar intelligence breakdowns. During its recent confrontation with Israel, several Hezbollah members’ pagers exploded simultaneously—Mossad had planted explosives in the devices, and Hezbollah didn’t even realize it.

Compare this to the assassination of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s military chief in Gaza. That attack was accidental; Israel didn’t know it had killed someone so senior. But when Mossad went after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, it had pinpointed his location. They had been tracking him for days and knew exactly which tunnel he was in. On the day of the strike, Israeli forces followed his vehicle until it entered the tunnel, and then dropped a bunker-buster bomb, collapsing it and killing Nasrallah.

The point of recounting these events is to illustrate how badly exposed Iran’s intelligence network has become since October 7. Iran’s archrival is Israel, whose Mossad is among the most elite intelligence agencies in the world. To survive in such a geopolitical environment, Iran must maintain an equally competent intelligence network. And for years, it did.

Yes, Iran has lost nuclear scientists to Mossad operations before, but never this many top military generals. Likewise, Hezbollah—Iran’s strongest proxy—has never seen such catastrophic intelligence failures. In the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, it was Hezbollah’s intelligence that often outmaneuvered Israel’s. Israel tried—and failed—to touch Nasrallah. In fact, Hezbollah managed to sink an Israeli warship during that conflict.

So what changed in recent years that left Iran and Hezbollah’s intelligence so vulnerable?

Let’s examine the strategic shifts.

In the early 2010s, the Arab Spring spread to countries like Syria and Yemen, both crucial to Iran’s regional influence. Iran’s key goal became preserving Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, and empowering Shia factions in Yemen to challenge Saudi Arabia, its archrival, right at its doorstep. But both missions were far from easy.

At one point, Syrian rebels nearly toppled Assad. Cities like Aleppo were overrun. Iran panicked and deployed Hezbollah fighters to Syria to fight for Assad. Eventually, Iran succeeded in keeping Assad in power.

Meanwhile, in Yemen, Iran-backed Houthi rebels began winning major victories. Alarmed, Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched heavy aerial bombings and armed opposition forces. To maintain influence there, Iran ramped up support to the Houthis.

These proxy wars lasted for years, consuming Iran’s military, intelligence resources, and strategic focus. Naturally, its attention to Israel diminished.

And this is where, I believe, Israel seized the opportunity.

Mossad took advantage of Iran’s distraction to deeply infiltrate both Iran and Hezbollah. Because Iran was focused elsewhere, it failed to detect Mossad’s penetration into its most secure zones. Slowly, Mossad operatives embedded themselves deep inside high-security compounds.

This didn’t happen overnight. Israel has likely been laying the groundwork for years, waiting for the right moment. And now that moment has arrived.

And Mossad may not be done yet.

If a full-scale war breaks out between Israel and Iran, we could see even greater intelligence failures on Iran’s side—failures that could be far more catastrophic.

By Ishfaq Farhan Siam, Researcher, Department of International Relations, Georgetown University